Quarterly Property Market Update – October 2010

Based on The Age Sunday Results*

July 4 349/521 = 67% * Auction Schedule across Melbourne
(Sold on the day or prior to auction)

A Guide to Success Rates:

Over 70%
Market very buoyant – prices rising strongly

60% to 70%
Demand fair to good – prices flat or increasing.

Below 60%
Fair at best – prices level or falling.

 

July 11 350/516 = 68%
July 18 357/497 = 72%
July 25 361/539 = 67%
Aug 1 384/541 = 71%
Aug 8 312/467 = 67%
Aug 15 353/510 = 68%
Aug 22 212/280 = 76%
Sept 5 419/582 = 72%
Sept 12 407/582 = 70%
Sept 19 516/718 = 72%

 

 

Auction Successes Stage A Modest Recovery

Following a mid-year drop in the weekly auction success rate to the 60’s per cent area from consistently over 80% at the start of the year, success rates have nudged back into a mid-way range hovering between 70 and 76% in the month of September. Anecdotally the word from selling agents across Melbourne’s inner belt (within 10-15 kms of the CBD) is that auctions can still be patchy, and the days of assuming “everything” will sell – “no worries”, are past. Our own observations around the auction scene would largely agree with this overview. Buyer’s demand pressure is not the frantic behaviour it was. Though still something of a rarity, from a buyer’s advocate’s perspective, it’s a delight to participate in a pass-in where you are the only bidder!

 

In spite of slightly cooler conditions overall, we have seen some solid buying pressure across the price ranges we specialize in which is from $400,000 to $1 million and in many instances four or five bidders have competed for properties. Our estimation of the health of the property market is that results consistently over 65% reflects a sound situation, with growth albeit modest, likely to be occurring. Once this rate is over 70% for any period, prices are likely to be pushing higher and demand from other bidders/buyers competing, more noticeable. While tactics always matter, they matter even more in this environment, because not only is price an issue, but not being able to secure the property in the first place is at risk.

 

Residential real estate sold by the auction method in Melbourne number roughly one in four or five of all properties sold. Whilst this therefore is not a complete picture by any means, it has always been a good guide as to general demand – particularly in the established suburban areas.

 

 

Happy house-hunting,

 

Bruce Renowden